Trade Plan for 9/9-9/13
If you saw my video posted on X last week, I pointed out a weekly hanging man which *could* be bearish, and also made you aware of a 3rd point of bear divergence that could set up on the $ES/SPX futures daily chart and a megaphone that I saw forming. The bear divergence both triggered and played out during Tuesday’s session, while the megaphone was very useful for backtests. ✅
For members I identified out an hourly breakout during Monday’s abbreviated session and then said back below that breakout ($ES 5622) could lead to some ‘theatrics’:
I put on a full size short at the failure of 5662 Monday evening and then added in the morning to oversize when the 5627.25 weekly key was lost. I closed that short near the bottom of the daily megaphone. Friday provided another nice megaphone backtest from below at 5528.25 in the morning:
https://x.com/CordovaTrades/status/1832060690305106318
I was optimistic for precious metals and curiously gold held relative strength, but $GDX and silver declined in line with the broad market. My stance on $CL/crude oil futures was ‘Long over 74.16 or 72.52 backtest. Short under 72.52.’ I attempted a small long later in the week, but it fell through on Friday when crude got all the way to my next weekly support at 67.30.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
$ES/SPX futures printed the highs for the week on Monday evening and then trended down for the entire week, declining dramatically both Tuesday and Friday. $NQ/Nasdaq futures was the weakest link for the third week in a row.
$GC/gold futures held relative strength closing essentially flat, but $GDX/gold miners and $SI/Silver futures declined with indices.
$XOP/oil equities lost the relative strength it had shown over the past several weeks and declined to match the weakness seen in $CL/Crude Oil futures.
Here’s how last week closed out:
For the week ahead (09/09 - 09/13/24)