Trade Plan for 9/5-9/9
Are we there yet?
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Last week I cited that it would be the 3rd week in a row that the indices were closing at an extreme (either the high or low of the week) and I reiterated as I had stated in those weeks that it in those situations, there is a high probability that momentum continues into the first part of the week. This was once again the case and the downward momentum continued into the first part of the week. I also said that I would be trading cautiously this past week and waiting for setups because of a bearish looking monthly chart and with heavier QT starting soon. It was a week for trading my levels. I watch multiple charts simultaneously to give me the best setups, but here’s how my weekly $ES pivots performed on the hourly chart:
The low of the week was 3903.5 vs my weekly channel backtest pivot of 3903.75 where I went long for a very nice scalp.🎯🏆
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
$ES/S&P 500 Futures, $NQ/Nasdaq futures and $RTY/Small caps futures all started the week with downward momentum from hourly bearflags. Thursday we saw a reversal and a constructive looking hammer candle formed for $ES & $NQ on the daily, but midday Friday the price action reversed once again and the indices closed with higher lows (albeit barely) on the hourlies.
$GDX (gold miners) and $SI/silver futures made new recent lows, but $GC/gold futures held for a higher low thus far.
$CL/Crude Oil futures and $XOP/oil equities declined this week. $CL is still in a chop range, but closed below its 9, 20 and 50 Weekly MAs by a good clip more than in the past month’s chop.
Here’s how the week closed out:
For the week ahead (9/5-9/9/22)