Trade Plan for 9/18-9/22
FED up or to the wolves?
Last week I was low confidence bearish for indices price action, and looked to daily support/resistance to trade bidirectionally. This turned out to be a good strategy as week over week, $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures closed only slightly lower.✅ $RTY/small caps closed higher, but had the ‘assist’ of a late contract roll.
I was bullish precious metals with a plan to buy supports, which I did and that worked well. I cited the 1930 level as a key for the week and wrote:
True to form gold pushed it as low as it could, before rising back above. The low for the week was 1921.7 💰💰
I was bullish crude oil (believe it or not! 😏), meaning I thought it may close the week higher than last, but my plan was to short 89.23 if it looked toppy on smaller timeframes.
I took the countertrend short, which worked well at first, but price action developed into a megaphone and then broke out higher. My calculated level was affirmed as important to watch on a backtest to 89.22🎯 on a news drop.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
The indices chopped upwards until Friday logged a blistering decline. Despite turbulence, $ES/SPX futures settled just marginally red for the week. $RTY/small caps booked a gain on the week, but was assisted by a contract roll last week.
$GDX/gold miners outperformed the market despite $GC/gold futures and $SI/silver futures up just slightly for the week.
$CL/Crude Oil futures continued to rise, but $XOP/oil equities did not maintain momentum and fell despite the commodity’s strength.
Here’s how last week closed out:
For the week ahead (9/11-9/15/23)