Trade Plan for 8/29-9/2

Where do we go now, where do we go?

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Last week I was most confident in oil and oil equities continuing to show strength.✅  My strategy to trade the market was to fade the initial price action going into Friday, which I did by buying the dips in indices midweek and then riding them up into Friday morning and closing out gains prior to the planned volatility event of the Jackson Hole speech.✅  I then bought support on Friday afternoon, but the relentless downward momentum of the day continued and I stopped out of that trade.🔴 Controlling size and being disciplined with stops on a high volatility day like Friday is essential to long term success trading.

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• $ES/S&P 500 Futures, $NQ/Nasdaq futures and $RTY/Small caps futures all gapped down and opened the week with downward momentum. We saw a midweek bounce with $RTY closing its gap down on Thursday and then it saw both the high and the low of the week on Friday. $ES and $NQ came close to the Sunday opening on Friday morning, but did not breach the gap and reversed with force closing at the lows.

• $GDX (gold miners) also gapped down to start the week and then bounced, but fell with the rest of the market on Friday.  It remains below support, but holding higher lows.  $GC/gold futures and $SI/silver futures had similar trajectories.

• $CL/Crude Oil futures advanced this week and closed marginally back above the weekly 50MA.  $XOP/oil equities continued to show relative strength and despite declining with the market on Friday, closed green for the week.

Here’s how the week closed out:

For the week ahead (8/29-9/2/22)