Trade Plan for 8/25-8/30

Will August go out with a bang?

Last week I was slight bear, in the sense that I was looking to short pops as I also wrote that I wouldn’t be surprised to see $ES/SPX futures close slightly positive.  My key for the week was $ES 5608.  I covered most shorts I took there. The other major weekly level I was watching was $ES 5582.

I was far more optimistic for $GDX/gold miners and precious metals:

$GDX gapped down last Monday morning (giving great entry), then hardly ticked lower before beginning an ascent.

I was slightly optimistic for $CL/crude oil futures again not expecting a huge rally, but rather a pop and noted in Thursday morning’s note that an hourly close over 72.62 (after the low of 71.46) could be a tradable short term bottom. ✅

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• The indices gapped up to start last week and chopped. $RTY/small caps hit lows on Tuesday but then started to hold relative strength against $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures.  They hit lows on Thursday and then reversed upwards overnight into Friday.  $RTY was the outperformer for the week.

• $GDX/gold miners outperformed $ES and $NQ, despite $GC/gold futures working off some of its outperformance with consolidation this week.  $SI/Silver futures traded momentum with the indices, but had a stellar day on Friday gaining ground against them.

• $CL/Crude Oil futures closed slightly red, but with an impressive reversal off its lows, while  $XOP/oil equities settled nominally flat. 

Here’s how last week closed out:

For the week ahead (08/26 - 08/30/24)