Trade Plan for 8/18-8/22
Rotation, Inflation and Summer Speculation
Last week I stayed with a neutral bias. $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures were both ‘midrange’ on weekly levels and so I said:
To that end, I continue to hold a partial $NFLX short position and a full $MSFT short (taken the morning of the high). Last week I added a $PLTR short when the setup triggered. 😮✅
This week I am once again patiently eyeballing a good setup for the indices.
I was slightly optimistic for precious metals, but mostly for $GDX/gold miners given the breakout, and then silver and gold in that order, and that is the way they closed.✅ For this week, precious metals need to hold important 4hr levels to start a chop pattern rather than trigger a further decline.👀
I believed that last week was sort of a ‘last chance’ for $CL/crude oil futures short term bulls, but it closed the week slightly lower than I thought it needed to to look ‘ok.’ This week it’s all about recovering key levels for bulls. There could also be a good short setup there if we see a backtest.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
The indices declined slightly on Monday, just to bounce higher into Thursday and then drop back again Friday. Ultimately, they ‘grinded up’ with $RTY/small caps futures as the relative strength leader and $NQ/Nasdaq futures as the laggard.
$GDX/Gold miners closed green despite weakness in the precious metals. $SI/Silver futures held its ground better than $GC/Gold futures on the week.
$CL/Crude Oil futures declined on the week once again, while $XOP/oil equities settled green after a four week red streak.
Here’s how last week closed out:
For the week ahead (08/18 - 08/22/25)