Trade Plan for 8/11-8/15

Whipsaw on the Weeklies

Last week I started with a neutral bias, but with well defined parameters. I postulated that $ES/SPX futures could possibly be forming a head and shoulders type structure, so I was bullish out of the gate so long as what I considered to be the neckline (and also happened to be weekly support) held.

As the indices approached resistance midweek, I tried shorts at high probability levels. This was particularly successful on Thursday, when $NQ/Nasdaq futures rejected weekly and monthly resistance. I covered most at a support near the low, but kept runners in the event of a further flush.

On Friday we saw a breakout over that level, and surge higher. This week I am watching to see if that monthly level holds and watching the reaction if it gets to another resistance above at a measured move. 👀

I was bullish for precious metals and noted a 4 hour $GC/gold futures bullflag along with its breakout on Thursday. My weekly 3533.7 resistance level was very close to the exact high (3534.1) of the week.🎯

I thought $CL/crude oil futures could potentially hold and, if so, become a long swing. Instead it lost the key level I was watching midweek. 😐

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• The indices opened with a gap down last Sunday evening, but the dip was immediately bought and the indices chopped upwards into a volatile Thursday. Friday was another trend up day and the indices closed near the highs of the week. $NQ/Nasdaq futures was the relative strength leader.

• $GDX/Gold miners gapped upwards on the open and performed spectacularly well. $GC/Gold futures and $SI/Silver futures advanced nicely on the week.

• $CL/Crude Oil futures declined on the week, while $XOP/oil equities lost ground for the fourth week in a row.

Here’s how last week closed out:

For the week ahead (08/11 - 08/15/25)