Trade Plan for 7/7 - 7/11
Tariff letters, a new political party and still... nothing matters but levels
Last week I took a slightly bullish stance for the indices, because since both $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures were broken out - they remained bullish for me so long as those breakouts held (which they did). I noted that $RTY/small caps futures had 3 pts of confirmed bearish divergence on the daily, but outlined my plan to either buy a dip early in the week or to buy strength against that divergence. I bought it on strength on the breakout.✅ By the end of the short week, $ES was close, but hadn’t quite gotten to the daily resistance I was watching, but $NQ did lose a daily support after Thursday’s close, making for a nice short scalp.✅
Last Sunday I was slightly bear bias for gold, but the very first hourly candle changed my bias to bullish, because $GC/gold futures had the opportunity to waterfall below support, but instead held it with a pin candle and set a floor for the rest of the week. I was slightly bullish for silver.
The same principle was true for crude oil as it held just above the short zone.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
Indices churned upwards into Thursday with $RTY/Small caps futures outperforming and $NQ/Nasdaq futures underperforming. About half of the short week’s gains for $ES/SPX futures and $NQ were given back in the holiday trading on Friday.
$GDX/Gold miners was the star last week, as $GC/Gold futures and $SI/Silver futures booked solid gains.
$CL/Crude Oil futures held the previous week’s lows, but generally chopped sideways/slightly up into the holiday. $XOP/oil equities progressed in line with the indices.
Here’s how last week closed out (does not include Friday’s price action, as that will be consolidated into next week):
For the week ahead (07/07 - 07/11/25)