Trade Plan for 7/4-7/8
Fireworks or landmines?
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Last week I outlined another high confidence (4🍸) trade idea and it worked out yet again. I was bullish oil last week, particularly above the double pivot 🗝️ of 108.59:
“$CL/crude oil futures closed just under the weekly🗝️ line last week, but that is still enough to give me a bullish bias for this week, especially above the ‘double level’ of 108.59, above which a squeeze to 112.92-113.90 and beyond may be possible.”
The high of the week for oil last week was 114.05.🎯💰 It did recede back below the 🗝️, but I steadfastly maintained my bullish outlook and it still managed to make a recovery to close the week in the green.✅
The market gave us mixed signals last week, so this week I’ll include weekly charts for the semiconductor $SOX and biotechs $XBI ETFs and discuss some trade setups I’m considering. The swing setup I previously outlined for bonds $TLT has been a winner. I took some profit there on Friday.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
$ES/S&P 500 Futures, $NQ/Nasdaq futures and $RTY/Small caps futures backtracked on their gains from the previous week closing red. $NQ went from being the strongest to the weakest of the 3 majors losing more than ½ its progress, while $RTY was the strongest after having been the weakest for several weeks. Rotation was the theme of the rebalancing.
Precious metals closed the week red yet again and $GDX (gold miners) plunged below support. As with the indices, Friday was a bullish day for the miners and metals recovered somewhat. Was it enough to reverse the downward momentum from the last few weeks? I’ll share my thoughts.
$CL/Crude Oil futures managed to hold a gain last week, but crude equities still closed slightly in the red, further frustrating those who chased higher.
Here’s how the week closed out:
For the week ahead (7/4 (US holiday) - 7/8/22)