Trade Plan for 7/22-7/26

Time for a Change

Last week I flipped my bias to slight bear for the indices✅.  I looked for shorts at resistance on Tuesday, but got stopped out and had to reenter.😒 Then I spotted a $ES/SPX futures bear flag and we got a nice flush down to my bearflag target/weekly support on Friday.  

I remained slightly optimistic overall for precious metals, but decreased confidence and pointed out confirmed bearish divergence on silver and levels that need to hold for short term and intermediate term bulls:

I was highest confidence that oil would continue to decline, and I anticipated that $XOP/crude equities would outperform the commodity.✅

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• The indices crept higher in the first part of the week once again, but Wednesday was the start of a 3 day selling deluge.  $RTY/small caps held continued relative strength once again closing green amongst a sea of red despite the 3 day selloff.  

• $GDX/gold miners closed red and inline with indices after 2 weeks of gaining ground against the broad market.  $GC/gold futures started out strong, but couldn’t hold gains against a sea of red in the indices.  $SI/Silver futures followed through on confirmed bearish divergence and like the indices, closed with only a slight bounce on Friday.

• $CL/Crude Oil futures declined on the week, while $XOP/oil equities advanced despite weakness in the commodity yet again. 

Here’s how last week closed out:

For the week ahead (07/22 - 07/26/24)