Trade Plan for 7/10-7/14

More fireworks this week?

Last week I took on a slight bearish bias because despite the first week of July usually being bullish, there was bearish divergence ‘all over the place’ and the last couple of weeks felt like ‘BTD conditioning’ to me.  That said, I traded in both directions.  On Wednesday my plan was to add to shorts on the morning pop (which happened to be the highs of the week)✅💰.  

Then I sold pops again on Thursday morning into support✅💰, where I closed shorts and bought $RTY/small caps✅💰💰💰 (the outperformer into the highs of the week) until we hit resistance on Friday afternoon.  

I was cautiously bullish metals again, despite it still being a counter trend trade✅ and although I believed oil to still be in ‘chop consolidation,’ I was bullish for oil because of the persistent strength in $XOP/oil equities.✅

This week @SLMacro tackles his outlook on asset classes for the remainder of 2023.

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• The indices reached near weekly highs on Wednesday after a return from the holiday and Fed minutes.  The dip was bought on Thursday and the indices rose into late day on Friday, but the last hour of Friday was heavy selling across the board.    

• $GDX/gold miners closed red for the week despite $GC/gold futures settling essentially flat once again and $SI/silver futures booking a nice increase.

• $CL/Crude Oil futures gained impressively last week and despite market weakness, $XOP/oil equities held to close only marginally red.  

Here’s how last week closed out:

For the week ahead (7/10-7/14/23)