Trade Plan for 6/30-7/4
Fireworks into Independence Day?
Last week I set clear levels to be short under or long over:
Price gapped down on the open and backtested what I had set as the key for the week at $ES_F/SPX Futures 5954-5958.50.
The low for the week was 5959 vs my 5958.50 🎯💰 and after an initial rejection of 6059.25🎯, we saw price action close above on Monday afternoon, giving a long bias into resistance levels above.✅
I was most confident about gold being bearish for the week and took a fantastic short against a 4hr bear flag on Thursday. 💰 I was ‘on the fence’ for $SI/Silver futures, but ended up taking a long on a dip.
I was neutral for crude, but noted that we could see a “big move” either over 76.62 or under 70.21. Crude flushed once under 70.21. ✅
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
Indices gapped down on the open, but then bounced, trending upwards all week. $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures closed the week over previous all time highs, but $RTY/Small caps futures underperformed slightly and remains far from its high.
$GDX/Gold miners continued to sell off, as $GC/Gold futures also declined, but $SI/Silver futures lost ground on the week, but silver held relative strength.
$CL/Crude Oil futures gapped up on the open, but faded significantly into the first part of the week, before bouncing to close with a slight gain. $XOP/oil equities was the equity based biggest winner once again.
Here’s how last week closed out (includes contract roll):
For the week ahead (06/30 - 07/04/25)