Trade Plan for 6/26-6/30

Was last week's red candle a blip or will it get blippier?

Last week’s MoneyMaker subtitle was ‘Short week, Long Protection’ and that certainly was the theme of the week as it was both a holiday shortened week and the first down week in many.  I was bearish for the week, but kept my confidence low as I also expected chop consolidation and that’s exactly what we got.  I had started scaling into puts on the Thursday before and that worked well for the choppy week because although the week moved downwards steadily overnight, the day trading price action was mostly up.

The precious metals sector had been coiling for a big move and I was leaning cautiously bullish, but out of the gate the sector declined below my key levels and never looked back.  The good news for metals bulls is there was a pretty big flush, so the question for this week is: are they low enough to start looking for a bigger position?  I’ll share my take.

I leaned bearish oil and took a few short scalps from key levels. 💰💰

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• The indices turned downwards with $RTY/small caps futures descending the most, while $NQ/Nasdaq futures and $ES/SPX futures declined slightly in a choppy, but consistent manner.  

• $GDX/gold miners broke downwards from a weekly bear pennant and $SI/silver futures plunged lower. $GC/gold futures also declined despite having held steady in previous weeks.

• $CL/Crude Oil futures lost ground last week but bounced to close off the lows, while $XOP/oil equities underperformed the indices to the downside once again. 

Here’s how last week closed out:

For the week ahead (6/26-6/30/23)