Trade Plan for 6/23-6/27
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For the last 2 weeks I was neutral for the indices to start the week. Just like last week I continue to feel that we could move a good clip either up or down if we close the weekly above or below my levels, but (again) last week my levels bookended the top and bottom and price action formed another ‘indecision’ doji in both $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures.
On a daily update for the Juneteenth price action I wrote:
I was watching 5966.25 as a bull/bear fulcrum for the week. The low of the week was 5969.50.🎯
I was minimal bias bearish for crude last week most because:
I have noticed a repeating pattern of crude dropping from the opening price of FOMC weeks into the meeting. This turned out to be the case once again last week as $CL/Crude oil futures opened the week with a 6% gap up and were down 2% by the opening bell on Monday. ✅ 🔮
I was bullish precious metals so long as they held my key levels, but we saw a rejection in silver at both the weekly and daily levels I had been watching right around FOMC. Based on the silver rejection and bearish divergence I noted in Discord and on X at the end of Wednesday I closed longs near highs ahead of a significant drop into the end of the week. ✅
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
Indices opened with a contract roll gap up and made highs for the week on Monday. There was volatility over the Juneteenth holiday when we saw the opening gap fill and the lows for the week and then a gap up and rally. Ultimately the continuous settlement was slightly higher week over week with the assistance of a contract roll. $RTY/Small caps futures slightly outperformed.
$GDX/Gold miners lost some steam last week with a red inside weekly candle. Both $GC/Gold futures and $SI/Silver futures lost ground on the week, but silver held relative strength.
$CL/Crude Oil futures gapped up on the open, but faded significantly into the first part of the week, before bouncing to close with a slight gain. $XOP/oil equities was the equity based biggest winner once again.
Here’s how last week closed out (includes contract roll):
For the week ahead (06/23 - 06/27/25)