Trade Plan for 6/16-6/20
War, FOMC and a holiday shortened week
Last week I was neutral for the indices to start the week. I felt (and still feel) that we could move a good clip either up or down if we close the weekly above or below my levels, but last week my levels bookended the top and bottom and price action formed an ‘indecision’ doji in both $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures. I was watching $ES 6038.00 (which we tried to break out against and failed 4(!) times) and 5936.25 (which I logged onto Discord on Thursday night to cover shorts/buy for a scalp.) That same evening the persistent $NQ 21511.75 that I previously shared with you in the front part of this note held. 🤔 That level remains a constant on my weekly chart as it’s the center of an old triangle consolidation. With geopolitical events and an FOMC meeting this holiday shortened week, the market is primed for a move.
Friday’s rally did set up a nice short though. I started shorting just under my $ES 6023 level and added into a pop above.
That made for a nice 50pts on Friday:
I was bullish precious metals last week despite toppy looking weekly candles✅ and I was bullish for crude oil so long as it held 63.69. ✅
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
Indices saw a grind higher for the first part of the week reaching intraweek highs on Wednesday, before volatility came back on Thursday evening. Ultimately we saw $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures close the week slightly lower, while $RTY/Small caps futures went from the relative strength winner in the previous week to the relative strength loser last week.
$GDX/Gold miners and $GC/Gold futures booked impressive gains week over week. $SI/Silver futures held a small gain on the week.
$CL/Crude Oil futures surged higher on geopolitical events and we saw $XOP/oil equities be the equity based biggest winner.
Here’s how last week closed out:
For the week ahead (06/16 - 06/20/25)