Last week, despite a lot of volatility where we saw yet another week of lower lows across the board, the indices settled fairly close to where they started the week. I noted that if price action were to dip at the beginning of the week there would be a high probability of a bounce to balance/key levels upwards into the Wednesday event, which is exactly what happened.
On Monday $ES/S&P 500 Futures got an initial bounce upwards from 4098 (against my level of 4099.75🎯), before washing out under, and then chopping over the 4183 level before an impressive squeeze to my 4300👎 Iine🎯 where 4303 became the high of the week. This became the second week in a row that $ES was nearly perfectly rejected there.
$NQ/Nasdaq futures respected my 12716.75 support exceedingly well, bouncing twice from that level first from Monday’s 12709.75🎯 low into my 13568.50 resistance (13555.25 was the high of the week🎯) and Thursday’s 12705.25🎯 low for lesser bounce of ~217pts until a washout under Friday.
On Monday, near the lows for all indices, I tweeted wondering whether history would repeat for Fed week, squeezing price into Tuesday and Wednesday and then noted my ‘lucky’ timing with a 4 leaf clover. So how did I get lucky? I’ll show you on the hourly $NQ chart:
What some may perceive as luck, was really me just watching the price action for $ES, $NQ and $RTY against my weekly support levels at the same time. Initially we had bounced nicely from both the $ES and $RTY supports given but then washed below them. However, we hadn’t yet gotten to my $NQ support, so I theorized that *IF* price were to turn, that would be when/where it would. I felt the odds to be greatly in my favor given that it was a planned volatility week and I considered a bounce into balance prior to the event for all of the indices to be the ‘high probability’ trade for the week.✅
