Trade Plan for 5/8 - 5/12
Post Fed hangover or bender incoming
Last week I subtitled my trade plan ‘Cinco de Buy-o or Cinco de Die-o’ because I surmised that Friday could be make or break after $AAPL earnings. Indeed Friday turned out to be ‘Cinco de Buy-o’ and there was tremendous redemptive upward momentum after what had been selling pressure on every rally. I upgraded my bullish bias last week, meaning that I thought we may close green and if not, I intended to buy dips and hold runners unless supports were breached. My levels performed extremely well last week. The first major dip we got bounced from $NQ 13110.25 vs my 13110.50 🎯, while the next one bounced from 13001.75 vs my 13004🎯 before we closed out the week at 13317.75 vs my 13319.50🎯:
I also had a bullish bias for precious metals✅ and slight bearish bias for crude oil which bounced from 63.64 vs my 63.69 level🎯✅. The most interesting thing about both gold and crude for me were the stop hunt spikes (gold to the upside and crude to the downside) that happened outside of US RTH on the Wednesday evening futures open. I’ll explain what I think that means in the short and longer term.
This week @SLMacro looks at M2 money supply and a condition that has not occurred in 90 years.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
The market sold off rallies all week before finally reaching ‘last chance’ support on Thursday and then rallied sharply into the close on Friday. $NQ/Nasdaq futures just barely closed red, while $ES/SPX futures was the underperformer for the week closing red by less than 1%.
$GC/gold futures and $SI/silver futures popped substantially before Friday, when they moved opposite the market. $GDX/gold miners still managed to outperform on the weekly close.
$CL/Crude Oil futures continued downwards and washed out on Wednesday after US RTH. That was the low for the week, but it did not recover fully. $XOP/oil equities paralleled that weakness.
Here’s how last week closed out:
For the week ahead (5/8-5/12/23)