Trade Plan for 5/6-5/10

Sell in May or Maybe not just yet?

Last week I was slightly biased for more upside across the indices.  I took a cautious stance trading day to day and level to level because I was expecting a very volatile week.  My levels were superb and precise all week, but Friday was a tricky day after the big gap up so I will share my logic for the day with you.  Here was my guidance on Discord at the start of the day:

I post daily guidance at the beginning of the day and then explain my logic verbally on the channel where I am broadcasting charts.  You have probably noticed how important the $ES/SPX futures 5123 level has been over the past several months.  It’s been a decision point over and over again.  My logic was that after a gap above that extremely important level like the one we saw on Friday morning, the majority of traders who missed the morning move would be lined up to buy there.  So Friday I was buying dips unless it touched 5123.  If it got there on Friday, I felt that it would have picked up all those buyers and then sucker punched them. 

I was low confidence bearish again for both precious metals and oil ✅✅ and took short scalps for both a couple of times.  For $CL/Crude Oil futures I waited for what I felt/feel was a good risk/reward entry to go long.  I bought just above. 🤞

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• Within a highly volatile week the indices dipped to lows on Wednesday and then recovered to close with gains on Friday.  $RTY/small caps showed slight relative strength against the other indices. 

• After relative strength in the previous week, $GDX/gold miners didn’t hold up as well last week.  $GC/gold futures and $SI/Silver futures declined for the second consecutive week.

• $XOP/oil equities and $CL/Crude Oil futures declined by a good clip, with the commodity closing at the lows on Friday. 

For the week ahead (05/06-05/10/24)