Trade Plan for 5/30-4/3
Will bears pounce on the bounce?
Follow @CordovaTrades✨ and collaborator @SLMacro on Twitter and if you find our work valuable please share.
Last week I implemented a 5 🍸 bias confidence scale highlighting different biases I had for the week and then ranking them based on confidence. In the first week of doing this I was 2 for 3.
I was bullish the markets last week ✅ and I explained why :: $RTY/small caps (which often can lead the market action) had closed above its daily 9MA both Thursday and Friday the previous week and $TSLA had maintained the very important 650 level on the weekly close. I believed those 2 things to be favorable for a near term bounce and so I was looking to buy. If you follow me on Twitter you saw me live tweet that I was buying $NQ/Nasdaq futures almost exactly on the lows (but before my technical support) so this week I’ll explain why I chose to take entry before a formal support.
I was bullish precious metals and miners ✅ last week saying the following:
Gold, silver and $GDX/miners now look more constructive having held and gained during market weakness, so now I’m looking for them to hold against market strength should we see that this week. I believe that strength also lends credence to my theory that a market bounce may start soon.
Alas I was also bearish oil and noted it as a counter trend trade with the ideal setup for a leveraged swing with an entry above 115.36. The high of the week was 115.30. So ❌, 🙄 and also 🎯.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
$ES/S&P 500 Futures, $NQ/Nasdaq futures and $RTY/Small caps futures ripped faces off and closed the week near highs. All 3 are well over their 20 Daily MAs now, which is technically bullish, and look to have more upside next week. However, I do not believe we have confirmation yet that it’s smooth sailing ahead for the market.🚧
Precious metals held strength impressively against the equities buying deluge. $GC/Gold futures closed the week green and above my 🗝️ level for last week of 1850.9. $SI/Silver was rejected precisely from the previous gap area I highlighted at 22.475🎯, but managed to still close the week a good clip above the all important black line. $GDX/gold miners didn’t get above last week’s 🗝️ of 32.77, but did make forward moving progress and that’s all I was looking for against the market strength last week.💪
$CL/Crude Oil futures and $NG/Natural Gas futures showed what look like big gains at face value, but Crude stalled right under my breakout line for last week closing just beneath it, while Natural Gas closed just a hair over both my weekly and daily lines. So both of them are right on the edge. $XOP/Oil equities, which many feel leads the commodities, was super strong and broke out, but there is some possible bearish divergence there we shall examine.⚖️
Here’s how the week closed out: