Trade Plan for 5/12-5/16
Trading the Trade Talk Tango
I was bearish indices to start the week last week. I was looking for “scalp shorts” as long as price remained below 5719.75.
Since price dropped into Wednesday I did well with that strategy 💰, and then I bought the dip on Thursday as the FOMC decision shook out overnight and price never got to my ‘swing short’ level. Overall last week’s price action was consolidation across a smaller range than we’ve been seeing and I believe that is setting up for a larger move in the weeks to come. 👀
I remained bearish on metals to start the week, but my levels performed excellently and I noted that a recovery over 3281.6 could shift momentum upwards.
That same level held as support after momentum shifted back downwards.✅🎯 I was low confidence bearish for crude as it looked to me like a breakdown the week prior. It gapped down substantially to open the week, but the comeback to close the week back inside of my structure was impressive. Fakey breaky?🤔
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
Price action was bearish for the indices through the end of Tuesday, but then we saw a reversal upwards on Wednesday. Friday’s price action consolidated in place just under resistance ahead of weekend trade talks. $RTY/Small caps futures managed to close green, but remained muted.
$GDX/Gold miners was the relative strength winner for the week after a gap up on Monday. $GC/gold futures continues to hold strength relative to $SI/Silver futures.
$CL/Crude Oil futures recovered from a large gap down on Sunday evening to close with a gain, and $XOP/oil equities continued upwards after having shown relative strength against the commodity for a few weeks.
Here’s how last week closed out:
For the week ahead (05/12 - 05/16/25)