Trade Plan for 4/8-4/12
Channel change?
Last week I kept a 1 (of 5) 🍸 bear bias because $NQ/Nasdaq futures showed a confirmed bear divergence on the weekly and $RTY/small caps futures positioning relative to weekly resistance. Like pretty much all chartists I have had $ES/SPX futures within the confines of a daily channel for quite some time. The difference is I believe that the way I draw and select slopes is my edge as I’ve seen many think that it’s left the channel in past weeks. In general my plan was to short either near the top of the channel or on a break below. Last Tuesday price action closed below the daily channel level for the first time in months:
Then on Thursday morning $ES backtested the bottom of the channel from below, where I took the short. Full disclosure :: I expected consolidation ahead of Friday’s data more than the huge flush that occurred (I mean… wow!), but my levels kept me on the right side of that trade and it paid off biggly even if didn’t catch the entire move. 🏆
I had been eyeballing a $CL/crude oil short and took it against my 86.17 weekly level. My intention was to swing the trade into this week, as it performed quite well initially, but Thursday’s indices flush came with an oil spike and I stopped out of what I hadn’t already taken profit on with a slight gain:
My biggest win for the week was my theory that silver would have some catching up to do 💰💰💰 :
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
The indices chopped downward into Thursday, before a large flush. Friday saw a rebound of sorts, but $RTY/small caps didn’t recover as well as $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures, so it went from leading gains in the previous week to showing the most decline last week.
$GDX/gold miners was the relative outperformer for the week once again. $GC/gold futures also rose impressively once again and this time $SI/Silver futures made up for being a laggard with a huge move.
$XOP/oil equities continued to rise with $CL/Crude Oil futures.
Here’s how last week closed out:
For the week ahead (04/08-04/12/24)