Trade Plan for 4/24-4/28

Make or Break and Don't Rule Out a Head Fake!

Last week I amped up my slightly bullish bias to medium confidence for what I speculated could be a breakout from the range to the upside on another attempt at my 4183 “BUY OR DIE” $ES/SPX futures level.  All 3 indices did print higher highs and higher lows week over week, but the ranges were very tight and ultimately $ES/SPX settled just below resistance once again for the 8th(!) time.  This week is heavy on earnings so potentially we may (finally) see a break out, a break down or both.  I’ll share the levels I’m watching for what could be a very volatile and action packed week.

I increased my bearish bias for precious metals and took a couple of scalps short $GC/gold futures that I shared in the Discord, the last one on Thursday morning into Friday morning.  

I was essentially neutral on $CL/crude oil futures, leaning slightly bullish as it had settled just above resistance, but also gave the possibility of it declining to at least partially fill the open gap. It lost the resistance it closed above early in the week and didn’t look back.  I took 1 short scalp on it.  

This week @SLMacro shares his thoughts on the prolonged market chop and how he sees this playing out over the short and long term.

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• The indices saw decent intraday volatility but each was contained in a very tight weekly range. $RTY/small caps futs was the strongest of the indices with just a slight gain, while $ES/SPX futures closed essentially flat and $NQ/Nasdaq futures was the weakest, but still less than 1% off.

• $GC/gold futures and $SI/silver futures pulled back together and $GDX/gold miners also closed the week lower.  

• $CL/Crude Oil futures partially filled a large gap up left several weeks ago and $XOP/oil equities also printed a red candle. 

Here’s how last week closed out:

For the week ahead (4/24-4/28/23)