Trade Plan for 3/17-3/21
FOMC, Contract roll and other assorted shenanigans just ahead
As of last Sunday, I felt the indices had a good chance of bouncing early in the week because $ES/SPX weekly futures was at consolidation support and I saw confirmed daily bullish divergence on the $ES and $NQ/Nasqaq weekly charts, but I warned “If there is no bounce, note that downside could accelerate quickly,” which is common in situations when confirmed divergence is ignored. My weekly levels performed quite well for a fantastic bounce midweek, but it did get a bit ‘messy’ on a second backtest Thursday.
I was uncertain for precious metals last week, and I urged caution unless $GC/gold futures confirmed bull over 2936.7. Once gold got that hourly breakout it was smooth sailing and it reached both my hourly and 4hr targets. ✅
I was slightly bullish $CL/Crude oil futures last week, once again referencing my 65.65 support.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
Indices gapped down on the weekly open and plunged into midweek, chopping there and bouncing from lows on Friday. $RTY/small caps futures went from the relative weakest of the previous week to the relative strongest.
Precious metals and $GDX/Gold miners once againheld strong despite the indices.
$CL/Crude Oil futures held recent lows, but closed just marginally above flat week over week, but $XOP/oil equities bounced on Friday to show strength compared to indices.
Here’s how last week closed out:
For the week ahead (3/17 - 03/21/25)