Trade Plan for 2/17-2/21

Break out or Fake out?

Last week I kept a bear bias, as I believed that the consolidation in indices was likely to continue, but even bad data on Wednesday proved bullish for the indices. Despite my bias I am particularly proud of how my levels performed. On Wednesday morning I wrote:

The lows on Wednesday were $ES 6020.75 and $NQ 21510.75. 🎯🎯

Overall I was watching $ES 6095 as the level to flip long bias above. Here’s how it performed over the week:

I was cautious in playing precious metals to the long side, but when I saw $SI/silver futures breaking out on Thursday night, I alerted. Sadly for bulls, it just filled a daily gap and then declined on the data Friday morning, but I am watching fresh levels this week for holding a daily breakout or a flush to optimal buy zones. I was watching 70.21 for a $CL/crude futures buy and the low of week was 70.22. 🎯

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• For the 3rd Monday in a row price action gapped down on the open and was bought. The higher low came on Wednesday and Thursday was a breakout for $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures, which was the relative winner for the week. $RTY/small caps futures closed slightly in the red.

• Precious metals posted a gain on the week reaching highs on Friday morning, but declined steeply on data. $SI/Silver futures showed relative strength after being the weak line last week.

• $CL/Crude Oil futures closed slightly in the red, but $XOP/oil equities managed to break a 3 week losing streak.

Here’s how last week closed out:

For the week ahead (2/17 - 02/21/25)