Trade Plan for 2/10-2/14

Super Bowl - Which way does it roll?

Last week I amped up my bear bias, but as always used my levels as my guide. Interestingly, price action was nearly identical to the previous week in terms of bull/bear momentum including a fakey breaky above the ‘key’ $ES/SPX futures 6102.50 and $NQ/Nasdaq futures 21816.50 levels I’d been watching last week. I posted on X about them on Thursday:

On Friday at 9:27am I wrote:

Indeed, just like the previous Friday, the key was lost and we saw a large flush:

I had a neutral precious metals outlook for the week relying solely on my levels. Friday $SI/silver futures broke out on the daily, but like the indices it could not hold and fakey breakied back below. I was slightly optimistic for $CL/crude futures but it rejected close to my resistance and then ended the week below the level I wanted to see hold.

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• SAME as last week :: Indices gapped down on Sunday evening and collapsed dramatically into weekly lows overnight. Dips were bought all week and price action recovered fully by Friday morning, however Friday afternoon saw a volatile downward reversal and all of the indices closed in the red (with the exception of $NQ/Nasdaq futures closing flat this week) .

• Precious metals showed relative strength across the board once again. $GDX/gold miners and $GC/Gold futures led, while $SI/Silver futures booked a slight gain.

• $CL/Crude Oil futures and $XOP/oil equities closed red for the 3rd straight week.

Here’s how last week closed out:

For the week ahead (2/10 - 02/14/25)