Trade Plan for 1/22-1/26

A look at $NVDA and $TSLA for clues

Last week I wrote that I believed $NQ/Nasdaq futures remained extremely resilient largely because of the behavior of semiconductor stocks like $NVDA.  Then I shared my chart and this commentary:

Here is my $NVDA chart updated for this week:

Tuesday got the close above 550.16, Wednesday back tested it and then Thursday got a touch of the blue line resistance.✅  I tried a ‘cheeky short’ there but bailed on Friday because of the continued upward momentum of $NQ.  Price action closed the week above that blue line resistance (now support of 579.34 for Monday). If that level holds, it’s likely that price action will continue upwards to the second blue resistance line (labeled 613.37 for Monday and increasing daily).  If it declines back below the lower blue line on a close I will potentially like the short play again.

I bought $TSLA at my 208.69 key line area as I liked the risk/reward long there.  From a daily perspective it must regain the green flush line labeled 231.24 for Monday to regain upward momentum on the daily timeframe.  I will consider taking partial profit there if reached this week, and then the 🍸line is the next target above.  If it loses the key level on a weekly close, the lower channel line is the next major weekly support I am watching.

I was slightly more optimistic than I had been for precious metals last week, but my levels performed with precision.  $GC/gold futures rejected my 🔑/🚀line of 2063.1 with a high of 2062.8.  

$CL/crude oil (still) remains in a chop zone that is coiling tighter and tighter, and I continue to be overall bearish to a target below, but I held up my confidence in a potential bullish thrust.  I particularly liked the $XOP/oil equities setup, but thus far it has underperformed the commodity. 😑

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• The indices chopped downwards through midweek and then finished strong on Thursday and Friday. $NQ/Nasdaq futures was the outperformer to the upside once again.  Despite late momentum, $RTY/small caps futures settled marginally red to close red 4 weeks in a row now.

• Both $GC/gold futures and $SI/Silver futures made lower highs and lower lows on the week, while $GDX/gold miners opened the week with a gap down and declined from there.  

• $CL/Crude Oil futures chopped sideways once again, but the consolidation range continues to tighten.  $XOP/oil equities lost ground on the week once again

Here’s how last week closed out:

For the week ahead (01/22-01/26/24)