Trade Plan for 12/19-12/23

House (market) of cards

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Each time you have seen me ‘Buy The Dip’ in real time these past few months, it has been with the $ES/SPX futures September CPI high in mind as a price target for the year and last week that target of 4175 was achieved. ✅💰

From last week’s note:

Not only that but $ES/SPX futures topped out at my resistance right above that level at my 4183 ‘Buy or Die’ level.  The high of the week was 4180.

Friday $NQ/Nasdaq futures bounced from my ⚠️ support of 11272.75. 🎯  The low of the week was 11275.50.

This week @SLMacro looks at the health of the housing market.

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• The indices reached highs for the week early on Tuesday on a reaction to the CPI data.  Afterwards they sold off into the Fed interest rate decision and beyond to multi week lows before a ‘meh’ rally on Friday afternoon bouncing right at support. $NQ/Nasdaq futures closed the week down by the most, while $RTY/small caps tried to hang in there and hold just over 1% down from the previous week. 

• $GDX (gold miners) and precious metals showed slight relative strength to the indices, holding particularly well on Friday.  $GC/Gold futures closed red by just over half a percent.  

• $CL/Crude Oil futures and $XOP/oil equities closed the week green (!) despite the weakness seen everywhere else. 

Here’s how the week closed out:

For the week ahead (12/19 - 12/23/22)