Trade Plan for 12/18-12/22
Naughty or Nice?
Last week I didn’t have any strong bias conviction as I wrote: The market ‘grind’/chop has continued drifting slightly upwards and it’s been slow enough that one could make a case for expansion (when it comes) to be in either direction. Instead I relied on my levels to trade the market.
Just before the FOMC decision I decided to long $SI/Silver futures as my long play in lieu of the indices, because I thought it looked much more beaten down short term and if the decision was perceived to be bullish I expected it to outperform. ✅💰 I also felt good about it because I saw a small gap in in the hourly $SIL/ Micro Silver futures and typically that kind of gap does not stay open long term.✅
The low of the week for $GDX/Gold miners was 28.67 vs my 28.66 last chance 🍸support. 🎯 This was my weekly write up for $GDX:
I continued to be slightly bearish on $CL/crude oil for the week writing:
Crude remains a short while below 72.52.
The high of the week was 72.56 vs my 72.52 level 🎯✅ and I also pointed out a long scalp on my Discord Wednesday afternoon on the hourly that I held overnight. My weekly levels have been exceptional overall on both the commodity and $XOP.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
The indices rose into midweek and then continued grinding upwards after the FOMC decision on Wednesday. $RTY/small caps futures led the gains (although it was boosted by a contract roll gap up), while $ES/SPX futures notched an impressive 7 green weeks in a row.
$GDX/gold miners reversed direction back to the upside aided by a particularly strong Wednesday and Thursday, but pulled back on Friday. $SI/Silver futures retraced about half of its decline from the week before, but closed slightly lower, and $GC/gold futures also posted a gain on the week.
Both $CL/Crude Oil futures and $XOP/oil equities made lower highs and lower lows, but finished strong to close green, while $XOP demonstrated relative strength to the commodity.
This week @SLMacro looks back at 2023 predictions he made at the end of 2022 and also reviews the performance of this “Long Hold” stocks compared to the S&P 500.
Here’s how last week closed out:
For the week ahead (12/18-12/22/23)