Trade Plan for 1/16-1/20
Will this time be different?
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Last week I continued to maintain my medium confidence 3🍸 bullish weekly outlook for the market and although there was a lot of intraday volatility throughout the week, we saw consistent upward movement and bright green closes for all 3 of the indices.✅ I continued to be bullish metals as well this time with slightly higher confidence✅ and for the first time in many weeks I flipped short term bullish for oil (😲) because of the price action in $XOP from the previous week.✅
While most chartists have us broken out of the longer term market downtrend line already, I do not yet see that. Equity trading is closed on Monday/MLK Day, but futures trading opens Sunday evening as per usual and closes early on Monday. In this slightly abbreviated week we could get to what I consider to be the nearterm fly or die levels - so I’ll share what I’m looking for amidst volatility both in terms of breakout and confirmation.
This week @SLMacro gives a brief overview of options greeks as a primer for a piece next week about how options activity affect equity price movement.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
All 3 of the major indices got their grooves on igniting upwards. $RTY/small caps lead the charge once again followed by $NQ/Nasdaq futures and then $ES/SPX futures.
$GDX (gold miners) continued its bullish momentum this week and $GC/gold futures continued to ascend despite naysayers. $SI/silver futures closed the week with a gain, but still within its recent range.
$CL/Crude Oil futures gapped down to start the week, but then began to rise and never looked back. $XOP/oil equities showed strength, but didn’t quite keep up with the commodity.
Here’s how last week closed out:
For the week ahead (1/16 - 1/20/23)