Trade Plan for 11/6-11/10
Too soon?
Last week I reduced my bear bias to a minimum and shifted back to a more ‘neutral stance.’ My overall plan for the first part of the week was to buy any ugly gap down (if we got one on Monday) OR:
It was clear to me that without an ‘ugly’ gap down, we would likely hold strength into the FOMC decision simply because we were so oversold. ✅ From there both the magnitude and unidirectional price action for the week were interesting and anomalous for a few reasons I will review this week.
As far as a ‘bottom’ goes one of the conditions I was looking for was:
Out of those paths, the market delivered the less preferred option, exceeding my ⅔ threshold to close above even the previous week(!), so I believe path moving forward may also be bidirectionally unexpected and volatile to match the outlier movement seen in the last week.
I was minimum confidence bearish on precious metals, so I relied on my levels to short scalp gold at 2016.7 against a high of 2017.7 on the week🎯, as I believed it would be contained within that resistance✅. I was lightly bearish on oil for the week as well. ✅
This week $SLMacro looks back at the news moving markets last week and what it may mean going forward.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
The indices gapped up on Sunday evening and never looked back, delivering substantial rallies with 5 green days in each. $RTY/small caps futures led the charge upwards followed by $NQ/Nasdaq futures and $ES/SPX futures
$GDX/gold miners made lower lows but also higher highs on the week and settled marginally higher. $SI/Silver futures finally showed relative strength against $GC/gold futures, which closed essentially flat.
$CL/Crude Oil futures declined notably for the week, but $XOP/oil equities held strength.
Here’s how last week settled:
For the week ahead (11/06-11/10/23)