Trade Plan for 11/4-11/8

Election and FOMC week! Spring upwards or Fall down?

Each week I assign a confidence level for bias.  Generally speaking my bias is usually low because I am reliant on my levels.  Last week, however, I was 4🍸(my highest confidence level give so far) bearish for the market and my plan was to short pops as a 3rd point of bearish divergence had confirmed on the weekly timeframe for $ES/SPX futures.  ✅ 💰

I took off ½ of my $TSLA position (long from 213) at 270, close to the 273.54 high of week. 🎯💰

Then on Thursday morning (the day of the large drop) I alerted to a confirmed 3rd point of bearish divergence on the $NQ/Nasdaq futures daily chart.  It closed -2.5% that day.   

I was mid confidence bearish precious metals for the week ✅✅ and I was slightly bullish crude while it maintained above my key level, but the Sunday open gapped way below.  😒

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• The indices churned upwards into Wednesday, hitting highs for the week and then plummeted on Thursday.  Friday we saw a weak bounce across the board.  $RTY/small caps futures managed to close just shy of flat, but it had careened lower in the week before.  $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures booked a red week in line with each other.

• $GDX/gold miners bled to be red once again, with $GC/gold futures closing slightly down and $SI/Silver futures giving back a week and a half of gains.

• $CL/Crude Oil futures started the week with a large gap down, but clawed back most of it before a red Friday.  $XOP/oil equities continued to fall once again. 

Here’s how last week closed out:

For the week ahead (11/4 - 11/8/24)