Last week I remained bearish for the indices given the failure to hold a breakout on the sixth attempt, confirmed weekly bearish divergence confirmed a couple of weeks back and also the price of oil. My stand out call for the week was after hours on Wednesday. After the large spike up and drop by 4:10pm I came back on the Discord (usually I only give commentary during market hours) and said ‘that looks like a stop run to me.’ I shorted both $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures there and held through supports the following day. ✅💰
Despite there being a lot of activity (FOMC and important earnings) last week, I didn’t emphasize that in the note because as I said in the front part of last week’s note:
This week there’s a ton going on, but holding any bounce is still crude oil dependent in my opinion.
I continue to believe that is true this week. While $CL/Crude Oil futures is over XX.XX, indices are contained in a range.
I was/am waiting for precious metals to either show strength or flush and recover. They flushed last week, but no recovery yet…
My weekly and daily levels performed well across the board. Despite me being generally bearish I traded in both directions. Tuesday mornings note performance:
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
· The indices trended upwards into Wednesday’s FOMC, with both $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures wicking above last week’s highs after hours, but both reversed hard from there. $NQ was the weakest of the indices, but $RTY/small caps futures held green once again
· Precious metals declined with the indices. $GC/gold futures rejected resistance on Wednesday and closed the week underneath the last low. $SI/Silver futures fell dramatically and led the losses.
· $CL/Crude Oil futures edged higher, finishing the week up less than 1%, and $XOP/oil equities outperformed again. $NG/natural gas was the standout at +9.77%, but much of that gain was due to a contract roll.
Here’s how last week closed out:
I broadcast hourly charts with weekly and daily levels 23/5 on Discord while futures are open. I give commentary and positioning during market hours.
For the week ahead (11/2 – 11/6/26)