Trade Plan for 1/1 - 1/5

New year, no fear?... and a look at $TSLA weekly and daily charts

Last week I once again assigned intraweek bull/bear keys close to the settlements of indices to gauge market strength in face of stretching to all time highs without an appreciable pullback.  I traded both long and short, and caught both the short Friday on a break below my weekly 4823.50 level and the reversal long at my hourly 4798. ✅✅

I was watching $TSLA for clues midweek.  While most traditional chartists have it broken out, I believe that my channel lines give me an edge over what ‘most’ people see.  Here’s my weekly $TSLA chart.  You can see we broke out midweek, but then receded back below:

So what had me suspicious here?

A Cordova special ‘martini’ line on the daily.  For me, breakouts that are super obvious need to be confirmed.  We opened above on Thursday, but quickly dropped below.  Here’s my daily $TSLA chart updated for Tuesday:

These levels change daily, but I feel confident enough to take long profit and wait when we get to one.  While below the descending martini on daily closes, a breakout is unconfirmed imo.  My green line (238.16 for Tuesday) would be a ‘traditional breakout backtest’ and a close below that level would indicate that a further correction will come before higher. A close above the martini level would be constructive for a true breakout and more upside.

I was slight long bias for precious metals once again, but listed some reasons to be cautious and indicated that we would eclipse my first gold target✅ if hit again:

I was constructive on $CL/crude oil but really because I wanted a short around 76.62. 😏

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• After a holiday on Monday, the indices climbed Tuesday into Wednesday and then receded on Thursday and Friday.  $ES/SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures bounced midday on Friday to close higher week over week once again (that’s 9 weeks in a row for $ES!), but $RTY/small caps futures continued downwards, to close the week slightly red (gasp).

• $GC/gold futures outperformed $SI/Silver futures for the 2nd week in a row and despite downside at the end of the week, $GC closed green. $GDX/gold miners gapped up to start the week, but Thursday took the miners down significantly and it closed the week with a loss. 

• $CL/Crude Oil futures and $XOP/oil equities rocketed upwards on Monday, but then declined for the rest of the week to close down.  

Here’s how last week closed out:

For the week ahead (12/25-12/29/23)