Two weeks ago I believed that $ES/SPX futures broke out from a weekly bullflag structure and last week I was set to buy the backtest if we got one. The general plan for the week was to buy a breakout > 7804.75 or short below into support. Then to buy a backtest of that 7670.50 support:
The market dipped last week and *just* missed my weekly support. In general I believe that a near miss like that is short term bullish and we got a bounce alllll the way to that higher 7804.75 weekly level. ✅💰
I had a bullish bias for precious metals once again, but noted a last buy $GC/gold futures level that also aligned with a breakdown of a 4hr bearflag. Unfortunately metals plummeted from the open and $GC lost that level and was unable to recover.
As I mentioned last week in the front part of this note, much of whether any large breakout happens is correlated with the indices in my opinion. So far $ES/SPX futures has been contained at a weekly resistance level despite a lower breakout and backtest.
I was bearish for both $CL/Crude Oil futures and $XOP/oil equites again, and that worked for crude, but $XOP did eek out a gain.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
· The indices dipped into midweek/end of September, but then recoiled upwards on Thursday and Friday. $NQ/Nasdaq futures closed green and showed relative strength, while both $ES/SPX futures and $RTY/small caps futures closed marginally red.
· Precious metals lost ground of the week once again. $SI/Silver futures was the relative underperformer for the second week in a row.
· $CL/Crude Oil futures declined once again in choppy trading, but $XOP/oil equites held onto a gain to be the modest outperformer for the week.
Here’s how last week closed out:
I broadcast hourly charts with weekly and daily levels 23/5 on Discord while futures are open. I give commentary and positioning during market hours.
For the week ahead (10/5 – 10/9/26)