Last week I felt that price action was likely to chop or rise at the beginning of the week in the bigger picture:
That said, I was not averse to taking shorts. The indices were all up on Monday and we saw small range chop on Tuesday before a decline and bounce on Wednesday. I caught the bounce long on Wednesday as it correlated well with both my $ES/$SPX futures and $NQ/Nasdaq futures supports. Unfortunately, it didn’t get quite high enough for me to have confidence in holding longs into Thursday. Thursday’s trend day up price action was super interesting to me, not because it’s unusual for us to see trending into data (it’s not). However, from a daily candle perspective, the odds heavily favored chop or down. At any rate I did try shorting what I felt was ‘last chance’ resistance on Thursday and closed the short just a couple points higher, when the hourly didn’t reject there. There was ‘tape bomb’ news around that same time that briefly sent the indices lower, but still – they managed to recover that level on the hourly close – signifying strong momentum.
I was most confident (doubling down on the week before) that we would see a down week in precious metals and shorted the pops at the beginning of the week. ✅💰
$CL/Crude oil futures reversed course and rallied lining up with the relative strength in $XOP/oil equities seen over the last couple of weeks.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
· The indices rallied in the first part of the week, dipping to lows on Wednesday and rallying again into the close on Friday. $RTY/small caps showed relative strength after falling behind over the last few weeks.
· $GDX/Gold miners dropped substantially after many weeks of advancing higher. $GC/gold futures and $SI/silver futures both declined despite equities.
· $CL/Crude Oil futures and $NG/Natural Gas futures reversed to lead commodities higher.
Here’s how last week closed out:
For the week ahead (10/27 - 10/31/25)