Last week I was bearish for the indices given the failure to hold a breakout on the sixth attempt and also confirmed weekly bearish divergence.
I also wrote:
I think indices are in trouble unless $ES/SPX futures is able to regain a lost level from last week. I believe that $CL/Crude Oil futures over another level I am watching is bearish for indices – so therefore I believe that this week’s bull/bear price action in both indices and precious metals is up to oil.
In the front part of this note.
Of course I looked super wrong at first when indices zoomed upwards in the first part of the week(🤔), but gosh they really gave a fantastic backtest to the upside and I took the short. ✅💰
The $ZB futures/$TLT bond trade I took a couple of week ago near lows got to second level resistance and rejected. I think it has more juice, so I am watching that level carefully again this week. Here’s an updated chart:
I was also bearish for precious metals, given the indices outlook and indicated that longs needed to come by strength.
This week there’s a ton going on, but holding any bounce is still crude oil dependent in my opinion.
Summary of Market Action Last Week:
· The indices zoomed upwards into Wednesday but then reversed dramatically. However, $RTY/small caps futures was able to hold green after closing red nine weeks in a row.
· Precious metals also lost ground on the week led by $GDX/gold miners. Gold barely hung in there with a higher low so far.
· $CL/Crude Oil futures rose substantially once again and $XOP/oil equites outperformed again despite weakness in the broader market.
Here’s how last week closed out:
I broadcast hourly charts with weekly and daily levels 23/5 on Discord while futures are open. I give commentary and positioning during market hours.
For the week ahead (10/26 – 10/30/26)