Trade Plan for 10/24-10/28

Major change for the gold miners?

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Last week I expected a surge higher Sunday night into Monday ✅ and I had a slight bullish bias for the market overall.  I became more confident midweek and shared that viewpoint on the MoneyMaker discord before enduring Thursday’s turbulence. The bulls got redemption on Friday.

I also had a bullish weekly bias for $GDX/gold miners and the precious metals. This past week something technically changed for the gold miners that hasn’t happened since April. In this note I share my thoughts on why that’s important and what I think happens next.

I was bearish for crude oil, but while oil was down for the week, $XOP/oil equities broke out last week - so a bit of a mixed bag there.

This week in addition to the usual data releases we have some important big tech earnings to watch out for again:

This week @SLMacro looks at the surging US dollar and how it impacts global economies and markets.

Summary of Market Action Last Week:

• $ES/S&P 500 Futures, $NQ/Nasdaq futures and $RTY/Small caps futures gapped down slightly last Sunday, but then barely ticked down from there and made a strong start to the week.  Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday were choppy and volatile. Friday the indices had a very strong day and rocketed into the close.

• $SI/silver futures and $GC/gold futures followed a similar trajectory to the indices, but gold did slip into weekly and yearly lows on Friday morning before a powerful rebound.  $GDX (gold miners) left a small gap up and led the momentum for the sector closing the week at the highs.  

• $CL/crude oil futures made lows for the week on Tuesday and essentially formed a U shape for price action. $XOP/oil equities showed relative strength.

Here’s how the week closed out:

For the week ahead (10/24 - 10/28/22)